By CAROLINE GLICK The Jerusalem Post
www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=182316
Change has come to the Middle East. Over the past several weeks, multiple
press reports indicate that Turkey is collaborating militarily with Syria in
a campaign against the Kurds of Syria, Iraq and Turkey.
Turkey is a member of NATO. It fields the Western world’s top weapons
systems.
Syria is Iran’s junior partner. It is a state sponsor of multiple terrorist
organizations and a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction.
Last September, as Turkey’s Islamist government escalated its anti-Israel
rhetoric, Ankara and Damascus signed a slew of economic and diplomatic
agreements. As Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made clear at the
time, Turkey was using those agreements as a way to forge close alliances
not only with Syria, but with Iran.
“We may establish similar mechanisms with Iran and other mechanisms. We want
our relationship with our neighbors to turn into maximum cooperation via the
principle of zero problems,” Davutoglu proclaimed.
And now those agreements have reportedly paved the way to military
cooperation. Syrian President Bashar Assad has visited Istanbul twice in the
past month and then two weeks ago, on the Kurdish New Year, Syrian forces
launched an operation against Kurdish population centers throughout the
country.
On Wednesday, Al-Arabiya reported that hundreds of Kurds have been killed in
recent weeks.
The Syrian government media claim that 11 Kurds have been killed.
There are conflicting reports as well about the number of Kurds who have
been arrested since the onslaught began. Kurdish sources say 630 have been
arrested. The Turkish media claims 400 Kurds have been arrested by Syrian
security forces.
Al-Arabiya also claimed that the Syrian campaign is being supported by the
Turkish military.
Turkish military advisers are reportedly using the same intelligence tool
for tracking Kurds in Syria as they have used against the Kurds in Turkey
and Iraq: Israeli-made Heron unmanned aerial vehicles.
Even if the Al-Arabiya report is untrue, and Turkey is not currently using
Israeli-manufactured weapons in the service of Syria, the very fact that
Syria has military cooperation of any kind with Turkey is dangerous for
Israel. Over the past 20 years, as its alliance with Turkey expanded, Israel
sold Turkey some of the most sensitive intelligence- gathering systems and
other weapons platforms it has developed. With Turkey’s rapid integration
into the Iranian axis, Israel must now assume that if Turkey is not
currently sharing those Israeli military and intelligence technologies and
tools with its enemies, Ankara is likely to share them with Israel’s enemies
in the future.
OBVIOUSLY, THE least Israel could be expected to do in this situation is to
cut off all military ties to Turkey. But amazingly and distressingly, Israel’s
leaders seem not to have recognized this. To the contrary, Israel is
scheduled to deliver four additional Heron drones to Turkey next month.
Even more discouragingly, both the statements and actions of senior
officials lead to the conclusion that our leaders still embrace the delusion
that all is not lost with Turkey. Speaking to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs
and Defense Committee earlier this month, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-
Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi told lawmakers, “What happens in Turkey is not always
done with the agreement of the Turkish military. Relations with the Turkish
army are important and they need to be preserved. I am personally in touch
with the Turkish chief of staff.”
As Turkish columnist Abdullah Bozkurt wrote last week in Today’s Zaman,
Ashkenazi’s claim that there is a distinction between Turkish government
policies and Turkish military policies is “simply wishful thinking and
do[es] not correspond with the hard facts on the ground.”
Bozkurt explained, “Ashkenazi may be misreading the signals based on a
personal relationship he has built with outgoing Turkish military Chief of
General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug. The force commanders are much more worried
about the rise in terror in the southeastern part of the country, and pretty
much occupied with the legal problems confronting them after some of their
officers, including high-ranking ones, were accused of illegal activities.
The last thing the top brass wants is to give an impression that they are
cozying up with Israelis…”
As described by Michael Rubin in the current issue of Commentary, those
“legal problems” Bozkurt referred to are part of a government campaign to
crush Turkey’s secular establishment.
As the constitutionally appointed guarantors of Turkey’s secular republic,
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist government has targeted the
military high command for destruction.
Two years ago, a state prosecutor indicted 86 senior Turkish figures
including retired generals, prominent journalists, professors and other
pillars of Turkey’s former secular leadership for supposedly plotting a coup
against the Islamist regime.
By all accounts the 2,455-page indictment was frivolous. But its impact on
Turkey’s once allpowerful military has been dramatic.
As Rubin writes, “Bashed from the religious Right and the progressive Left,
the Turkish military is a shadow of its former self. The current generation
of generals is out of touch with Turkish society and, perhaps, their own
junior officers. Like frogs who fail to jump from a pot slowly brought to a
boil, the Turkish General Staff lost its opportunity to exercise its
constitutional duties.”
And yet, rather than come to terms with this situation, and work to minimize
the dangers that an Iranian- and Syrian-allied Turkey poses, Israel’s
government and our senior military leaders are still trying to bring the
alliance with Turkey back from the dead. Last month’s disastrous “top
secret” meeting between Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin
Ben-Eliezer and Davutoglu is case in point.
Far from ameliorating the situation, these sorts of gambits only compound
the damage. By denying the truth that Turkey has joined the enemy camp,
Israel provides Turkey with credibility it patently does not deserve. Israel
also fails to take diplomatic and other steps to minimize the threat posed
by the NATO member in the Iranian axis.
OUR LEADERS’ apparent aversion to accepting that our alliance with Turkey
has ended is troubling not only for what it tells us about the government’s
ability to craft policies relevant to the challenges now facing us from
Turkey. It bespeaks a general difficulty that plagues our top echelons in
contending with harsh and unwanted change.
Take Egypt for example. Over the past week, a number of reports were
published about the approaching end of the Mubarak era. The Washington Times
reported that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is terminally ill and likely
will die within the year. The Economist featured a 15- page retrospective on
the Mubarak era in advance of its expected conclusion.
There are many differences between the situation in Egypt today and the
situation that existed in Turkey before the Islamists took over in 2002.
For instance, unlike Turkey, Egypt has never been Israel’s strategic ally.
In recent years however, Egypt’s interests have converged with Israel’s
regarding the threat posed by Iran and its terror proxies Hizbullah and
Hamas – the Palestinian branch of the Mubarak regime’s nemesis, the Egyptian
Muslim Brotherhood. These shared interests have paved the way for security
cooperation between the two countries on several issues.
All of this is liable to change after Mubarak exits the stage. In all
likelihood the Muslim Brotherhood will have greater influence and power than
it enjoys today. And this means that a successor regime in Egypt will likely
have closer ties to the Iranian axis. Despite the Sunni-Shi’ite split,
joined by a common enmity toward the Mubarak regime, the Muslim Brotherhood
has strengthened its ties to Iran and Hizbullah of late.
Recognizing the shifting winds, presidential hopefuls are cultivating ties
with the Brotherhood.
For instance, former International Atomic Energy Agency chief and current
Egyptian presidential hopeful Mohamed El-Baradei has been wooing the
Brotherhood for months. And in recent weeks, they have been getting on his
bandwagon. Apparently, El-Baradei’s support for Iran’s nuclear program won
him credibility with the jihadist group even though he is not an Islamic
fanatic.
If and when the Brotherhood gains power and influence in Egypt, it is likely
that Egypt will begin sponsoring the likes of Hamas, al-Qaida and other
terrorist organizations. And the more powerful the Brotherhood becomes in
Egypt, the more likely it is that Egypt will abrogate its peace treaty with
Israel.
It is due to that peace treaty that today Egypt fields a conventional
military force armed with sophisticated US weaponry. The Egyptian military
that Israel fought in four wars was armed with inferior Soviet weapons. Were
Egypt to abrogate the treaty, a conventional war between Egypt and Israel
would become a tangible prospect for the first time since 1973.
Despite the flood of stories indicating that the end of the Mubarak era is
upon us, publicly Israel’s leaders behave as though nothing is the matter.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s routine fawning pilgrimage to Mubarak
this week seemed to demonstrate that our leaders are not thinking about the
storm that is brewing just over the horizon in Cairo.
TURKEY’S TRANSFORMATION from friend to foe and the looming change in Egypt
demonstrate important lessons that Israel’s leaders must take to heart.
First, Israel has only a very limited capacity to influence events in
neighboring countries.
What happened in Turkey has nothing to do with Israel and everything to do
with the fact that Erdogan and his government are Islamist revolutionaries.
So, too, the changes that Egypt will undergo after Mubarak dies will have
everything to do with the pathologies of Egyptian society and politics, and
nothing to do with Israel. Our leaders must recognize this and exercise
humility when they assess Israel’s options for contending with our
neighbors.
Developments in both Turkey and Egypt are proof that in the Middle East
there is no such thing as a permanent alliance. Everything is subject to
change. Turkey once looked like a stable place. Its military was
constitutionally empowered – and required – to safeguard the country as a
secular democracy. But seven years into the AKP revolution the army cannot
even defend itself.
So, too, for nearly 30 years Mubarak has ruled Egypt with an iron fist. But
as Israel saw no distinction between Mubarak and Egypt, the hostile forces
he repressed multiplied under his jackboot.
Once he is gone, they will rise to the surface once more.
Moving forward, Israel must learn to hedge its bets. Just because a
government embraces Israel one day does not mean that its military should be
given open access to Israeli military technology the next day. So, too, just
because a regime is anti-Israel one day doesn’t mean that Israel cannot
develop ties with it that are based on shared interests.
Whether it is pleasant or harsh, change is a fact of our lives. The side
that copes best with change will be the side that prospers from it.
Our leaders must recognize this truth and shape their policies accordingly.
caroline@carolineglick.com
This entry was posted
on Sunday, July 25th, 2010 and is filed under opinion.